Historically, white Christmases were more common in the 18th and 19th centuries, but milder Decembers in recent years have made snow on 25 December less likely over time.
Statistically, December is less snowy than January or February, with snow settling on average only three days in December across the UK.
What Defines a White Christmas?
The Met Office defines a white Christmas as at least one snowflake observed falling in any part of the UK during 25 December. This broad definition means white Christmases are more common in this context than more widespread snow cover. The last significant white Christmas was in 2010, when snow lay on the ground across 83% of the UK
Forecast for 2024
While specific predictions for Christmas Day weather remain uncertain until closer to the date, current indicators suggest that snow may occur in northern Scotland, especially in high-altitude or coastal areas.
The odds for snow in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland are significantly lower, with bookies estimating a 33% chance in England and just 17% in Wales. Scotland, however, holds a 66% probability of seeing snowflakes again this year
Why Snow is Rare in December
Weather patterns in December are often dominated by rain rather than snow due to relatively mild conditions. Any snow is more likely to fall in northern and higher-altitude regions, while lowland areas typically see rain or sleet. For a quintessential snowy Christmas scene, January and February are statistically more reliable months
Ultimately, the UK remains captivated by the idea of a snowy Christmas, even if it’s more of a nostalgic dream than a reliable reality. Keep an eye on forecasts as the day approaches to see if this year brings a festive surprise.